* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 06/17/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 37 34 29 24 22 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 37 34 29 28 26 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 24 21 20 19 17 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 3 3 5 10 17 19 26 23 25 26 25 SHEAR DIR 11 7 338 279 236 201 192 196 197 208 193 207 200 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 27.9 26.8 25.3 24.1 24.2 25.5 26.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 159 156 151 142 130 115 102 103 116 131 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 4 3 4 3 5 3 6 2 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 70 67 66 65 59 56 49 48 44 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 4 0 2 6 26 56 61 51 42 30 31 24 200 MB DIV 40 29 34 43 40 52 53 14 11 20 19 -4 19 LAND (KM) 486 504 517 541 579 585 453 303 146 20 0 67 83 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.7 23.0 24.2 25.2 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.1 108.0 108.9 109.7 110.9 111.3 110.9 110.6 110.3 110.2 110.2 110.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 66 55 42 39 33 8 9 0 0 0 0 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 13. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 12. 9. 4. 0. -3. -4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 06/17/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 06/17/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY