* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 06/17/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 33 33 30 27 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 33 33 31 26 26 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 20 24 26 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 5 12 17 23 26 30 35 39 40 35 SHEAR DIR 329 315 203 195 185 199 207 184 200 193 203 212 226 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.9 26.1 24.7 26.3 29.9 27.3 24.4 20.4 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 152 146 142 124 110 127 165 138 108 66 62 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -51.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 4 4 4 4 7 4 8 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 67 69 65 64 59 56 49 43 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 4 14 22 46 49 62 58 20 35 0 -4 200 MB DIV 25 39 56 74 70 57 11 22 25 33 26 25 3 LAND (KM) 483 479 497 510 524 359 144 19 -15 -216 -425 -683 -942 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 19.7 21.6 23.8 26.2 28.6 30.8 33.0 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.9 109.5 110.0 110.5 110.1 109.6 109.1 108.5 107.6 106.1 103.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 9 10 12 12 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 46 39 35 26 7 2 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 22. 25. 26. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -2. -8. -14. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 8. 5. 2. 0. -6. -14. -23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 06/17/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 06/17/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY