* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 06/17/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 38 36 35 33 30 26 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 38 36 35 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 27 28 26 24 23 22 25 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 9 15 23 24 28 27 32 30 31 33 SHEAR DIR 335 354 183 181 196 206 214 202 209 203 210 210 229 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.3 25.9 25.5 27.4 29.3 29.5 27.8 25.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 149 143 136 122 118 137 157 159 141 120 86 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 5 6 5 7 5 6 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 70 66 64 60 57 45 42 37 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 8 18 31 47 43 82 24 51 11 47 30 200 MB DIV 36 51 67 70 54 22 -2 12 12 25 21 19 22 LAND (KM) 469 469 480 466 459 290 117 58 30 -19 -94 -214 -285 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.7 20.3 22.0 23.8 25.4 26.7 28.3 29.8 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.4 109.0 109.4 109.7 109.7 109.4 109.1 109.2 109.3 109.7 109.8 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 44 40 32 30 32 0 0 50 78 45 16 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 11. 16. 21. 26. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 11. 10. 8. 5. 1. -5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 06/17/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 06/17/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY