* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012009 06/18/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 33 35 35 36 39 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 26 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 9 13 18 14 19 12 14 9 5 3 11 N/A SHEAR DIR 201 164 167 180 174 161 198 178 178 178 233 269 N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.9 29.3 29.6 29.3 28.4 28.0 27.7 29.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 141 138 138 143 157 160 156 145 140 138 161 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 69 69 68 62 59 51 44 41 44 53 57 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 24 32 43 49 93 42 53 9 28 -1 27 N/A 200 MB DIV 45 42 48 20 3 23 27 24 29 17 28 11 N/A LAND (KM) 373 303 242 198 181 52 -126 -220 -289 -300 -310 -140 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.3 23.0 24.8 26.3 27.4 27.8 28.1 26.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.1 107.9 107.6 107.3 106.9 106.3 106.4 106.5 106.6 106.7 107.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 9 9 9 7 4 2 4 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 15 5 5 9 24 21 14 0 0 0 11 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 14. 15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012009 ONE 06/18/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012009 ONE 06/18/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY