* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012009 06/19/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 35 35 37 40 41 44 45 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 35 35 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 10 14 17 19 18 11 10 5 7 9 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 182 160 169 179 152 185 164 173 214 267 303 279 N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.6 28.2 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.1 29.0 29.1 30.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 137 139 146 157 160 158 152 151 153 164 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 9 6 10 6 10 4 7 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 60 60 53 48 42 46 51 57 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 33 45 67 80 53 50 23 22 18 41 N/A 200 MB DIV 52 39 18 9 14 20 8 20 42 11 23 -8 N/A LAND (KM) 300 245 203 182 164 37 -104 -190 -230 -224 -196 -19 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.6 23.2 24.6 25.9 26.7 26.8 26.9 25.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 107.7 107.6 107.4 107.2 106.9 106.4 106.5 106.6 106.8 107.3 108.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 5 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 13 5 7 13 22 20 17 2 2 3 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 10. 11. 14. 15. 15. 16. 17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012009 ONE 06/19/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012009 ONE 06/19/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY