* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012009 06/19/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 25 26 27 30 34 38 41 43 45 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 25 26 25 26 26 27 27 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 28 26 24 26 26 27 27 30 DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 15 16 7 6 4 4 9 11 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 169 165 163 143 138 167 169 144 196 270 245 259 N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 142 143 148 156 159 158 157 157 157 163 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 7 9 8 9 7 7 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 60 60 53 50 46 51 60 61 60 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 45 57 84 52 64 27 45 13 34 34 N/A 200 MB DIV 55 23 10 26 35 20 29 34 13 7 4 0 N/A LAND (KM) 213 166 147 151 124 37 -74 -148 -176 -149 -160 15 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.8 24.0 25.1 25.8 26.1 26.5 25.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.2 107.1 107.0 106.8 106.5 106.2 106.3 106.6 107.1 107.4 108.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 3 2 4 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 14 14 15 18 26 22 20 14 15 8 13 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. 0. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012009 ONE 06/19/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012009 ONE 06/19/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY