* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BTEST CP832009 06/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 34 30 28 40 44 39 35 35 27 25 22 18 23 SHEAR DIR 295 294 286 278 281 268 273 266 275 268 300 315 323 SST (C) 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.0 24.4 22.4 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 116 119 121 125 131 135 135 132 125 108 87 64 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.3 -55.9 -56.2 -56.4 -56.1 -56.6 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 27 26 26 30 30 28 30 31 31 37 39 41 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 26 14 14 16 -10 -12 -36 -58 -76 -92 -96 -95 200 MB DIV -49 -25 -27 -22 -10 -9 -17 22 -8 4 11 95 86 LAND (KM) 734 550 366 188 15 166 257 519 817 1097 1345 1559 1774 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.4 21.5 22.9 24.5 26.3 28.4 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 149.6 151.3 153.0 154.7 158.2 161.6 164.8 167.7 170.2 172.2 173.6 174.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 17 16 16 17 16 16 16 15 13 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 6 9 16 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 24. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -21. -25. -28. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -14. -17. -17. -17. -19. -23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP832009 BTEST 06/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP832009 BTEST 06/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY