* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012009 06/19/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 27 30 32 36 40 43 42 43 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 24 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 25 26 26 27 27 27 31 DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 11 16 16 13 10 5 6 6 7 10 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 175 167 134 144 158 153 173 145 189 226 242 137 N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.1 26.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 145 150 156 158 158 158 158 162 164 129 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -51.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 7 7 11 6 10 5 7 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 61 58 54 45 48 47 54 57 58 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 49 58 86 76 51 55 26 33 23 26 48 N/A 200 MB DIV 18 4 18 26 5 33 10 44 18 27 -11 17 N/A LAND (KM) 146 135 135 109 60 -29 -96 -144 -128 -102 -41 37 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.9 24.7 25.7 25.9 26.1 25.9 24.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.0 106.8 106.7 106.6 106.7 106.6 106.9 107.2 107.8 108.7 109.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 7 7 5 5 3 2 4 6 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 9 18 24 55 26 15 17 28 55 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 12. 13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012009 ONE 06/19/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012009 ONE 06/19/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY