* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012009 06/19/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 33 36 39 41 45 47 47 47 48 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 16 17 20 14 13 8 14 8 4 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 165 172 187 204 194 194 188 262 251 139 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 158 158 159 158 157 156 157 158 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 6 9 8 9 5 5 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 60 53 46 44 42 44 48 46 50 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 59 84 73 42 61 23 28 10 17 28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 29 28 13 23 26 21 15 7 -5 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 130 71 7 -29 -66 -141 -165 -175 -117 -82 68 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.3 25.3 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.0 25.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 106.7 106.5 106.6 106.6 106.6 106.9 107.3 108.1 108.7 110.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 5 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 23 17 55 35 26 14 7 9 27 11 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 17. 17. 18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012009 ONE 06/19/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012009 ONE 06/19/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY