* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BTEST CP832009 06/20/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 36 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 36 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 40 40 38 32 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 32 33 32 36 36 31 34 32 30 26 18 20 SHEAR DIR 274 272 285 286 277 284 275 284 277 284 277 300 301 SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 114 115 116 120 122 124 127 129 130 130 129 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -56.1 -56.4 -56.9 -56.8 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 24 27 24 18 17 17 16 16 21 20 27 30 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 7 -5 -8 -4 -7 -14 -14 -28 -49 -69 -62 200 MB DIV -40 -28 -38 -32 -23 -32 -15 -28 -14 -20 -6 -15 -1 LAND (KM) 596 513 430 347 265 106 22 56 89 98 216 374 557 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.9 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 149.1 149.9 150.7 151.5 152.3 154.0 155.9 157.6 159.0 160.4 161.9 163.4 165.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 357 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 0.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -16. -22. -26. -28. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 20. 23. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. -6. -14. -23. -28. -30. -30. -30. -30. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP832009 BTEST 06/20/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP832009 BTEST 06/20/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY