* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 06/20/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 55 65 72 75 73 71 67 61 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 55 65 72 75 73 71 67 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 43 52 61 67 69 65 59 51 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 12 11 12 8 12 14 9 13 15 18 21 SHEAR DIR 356 19 12 14 5 72 108 113 125 112 103 107 102 SST (C) 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.2 29.7 29.1 28.4 27.4 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 169 169 167 166 161 155 147 137 130 129 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 82 83 84 83 80 81 78 76 71 68 62 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 85 102 116 118 135 141 140 99 80 46 49 53 200 MB DIV 81 96 86 84 102 104 83 57 35 26 0 9 28 LAND (KM) 170 189 209 223 238 246 222 170 142 169 302 400 470 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.3 16.0 16.9 18.0 18.8 19.2 19.3 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.5 100.0 100.5 100.9 102.0 102.9 104.0 105.2 106.5 108.3 110.1 112.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 62 59 55 51 52 53 18 43 22 23 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 31. 35. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 30. 40. 47. 50. 48. 46. 42. 36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 06/20/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 06/20/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED