* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 06/21/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 47 56 62 64 61 59 57 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 47 56 62 64 61 59 57 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 46 48 48 45 41 37 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 13 11 10 13 17 9 16 13 16 12 SHEAR DIR 22 30 16 56 74 107 104 84 89 89 78 68 81 SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 29.8 29.1 28.3 27.4 26.6 26.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 168 168 167 162 155 147 138 130 124 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 9 6 7 5 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 82 81 82 81 78 74 70 67 66 67 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 111 119 125 133 144 121 83 41 37 54 54 48 200 MB DIV 93 96 100 87 100 77 48 61 15 18 -17 7 0 LAND (KM) 232 225 218 206 194 155 93 93 148 302 402 485 669 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.3 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.6 100.9 101.2 101.5 102.2 103.3 104.8 106.4 108.3 110.4 112.8 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 8 9 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 54 51 50 42 21 15 39 30 23 7 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 5. 14. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 22. 31. 37. 39. 36. 34. 32. 28. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 06/21/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 06/21/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED