* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022009 06/21/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 57 65 62 58 54 47 44 40 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 57 65 62 58 54 47 44 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 42 48 53 55 54 51 46 41 35 SHEAR (KT) 10 15 19 19 21 21 20 23 18 18 10 3 6 SHEAR DIR 79 54 47 70 93 94 91 85 85 89 40 37 20 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.5 27.7 26.1 24.4 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 166 165 163 159 154 148 140 124 106 99 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 8 6 6 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 81 77 76 70 68 66 67 63 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 10 12 9 7 7 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 118 122 119 120 123 88 74 32 45 34 44 33 200 MB DIV 105 90 83 93 92 64 44 47 17 15 -4 -14 26 LAND (KM) 286 294 301 292 289 221 173 117 86 156 224 191 311 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.1 21.3 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 101.7 102.1 102.5 102.9 103.7 104.4 105.1 105.9 107.2 109.0 110.7 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 59 63 65 64 57 44 41 26 25 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 372 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 28. 31. 32. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 2. 0. 0. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 27. 35. 32. 28. 24. 17. 14. 10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 TWO 06/21/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 TWO 06/21/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED