* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022009 06/22/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 55 56 51 46 41 38 34 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 55 56 51 46 41 38 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 46 49 50 48 43 38 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 14 18 18 23 23 20 21 14 14 9 7 5 2 SHEAR DIR 54 67 80 87 87 93 86 84 65 16 26 330 65 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.4 28.5 27.3 25.5 24.0 23.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 166 165 165 164 158 149 137 118 103 97 88 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.0 -52.1 -51.2 -52.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 6 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 82 82 76 76 76 70 66 63 63 57 59 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 11 13 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 117 115 112 114 109 79 44 28 29 64 49 47 200 MB DIV 87 77 95 100 92 71 65 11 14 -4 14 5 0 LAND (KM) 294 294 296 291 289 207 145 120 223 234 287 468 663 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.4 16.3 17.6 18.9 20.0 20.8 21.1 21.1 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.1 102.4 102.7 102.9 103.6 104.6 106.0 107.8 109.8 112.0 114.5 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 5 7 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 63 64 66 62 57 43 34 25 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 377 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 27. 29. 29. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. -3. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 25. 26. 21. 16. 11. 8. 4. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 TWO 06/22/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 TWO 06/22/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY