* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP022009 06/22/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 61 65 67 63 59 52 44 37 31 25 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 61 65 67 63 59 52 44 37 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 61 65 69 69 64 56 46 37 30 24 SHEAR (KT) 18 22 24 27 24 19 19 17 11 9 7 8 5 SHEAR DIR 65 68 74 84 90 79 78 53 71 21 26 24 9 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.6 28.8 27.6 25.5 23.5 23.0 22.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 166 165 163 160 153 141 119 98 92 85 80 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -50.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 75 74 73 71 68 62 66 61 61 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 12 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 114 112 113 113 116 85 66 23 29 44 45 60 68 200 MB DIV 85 83 95 81 58 35 50 2 -13 -4 11 0 -16 LAND (KM) 286 281 283 247 213 156 100 185 215 241 410 549 735 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.2 17.1 18.6 19.9 21.0 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.4 102.8 103.2 103.5 104.1 105.5 107.4 109.6 111.8 114.1 116.3 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 8 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 62 62 56 37 42 41 24 14 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 17. 14. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 20. 22. 18. 14. 7. -1. -8. -14. -20. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 ANDRES 06/22/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 ANDRES 06/22/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY