* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP022009 06/22/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 53 55 55 55 52 50 45 39 33 27 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 53 55 55 55 52 50 45 39 33 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 55 57 60 60 58 52 46 38 31 25 SHEAR (KT) 19 19 21 19 13 13 10 9 1 5 3 9 10 SHEAR DIR 66 60 71 83 75 46 77 104 245 79 109 158 191 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.2 27.4 25.9 23.0 21.6 21.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 161 161 156 146 137 121 93 78 79 78 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 7 7 8 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 77 75 74 74 72 66 67 64 61 55 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 116 132 134 118 91 51 32 30 51 49 59 64 200 MB DIV 80 93 91 60 47 41 -10 14 -7 16 -1 13 -11 LAND (KM) 192 176 155 100 59 24 47 204 180 129 324 465 614 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.8 20.2 21.2 21.7 22.0 22.1 22.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.3 102.6 102.9 103.2 104.4 106.1 107.5 108.8 110.8 113.5 115.7 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 10 9 8 8 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 17 19 36 39 29 22 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 17. 16. 12. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 7. 5. 0. -6. -12. -18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 ANDRES 06/22/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 ANDRES 06/22/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY