* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP022009 06/22/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 57 58 55 51 44 37 28 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 57 58 55 51 44 37 28 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 57 58 58 54 48 41 35 28 23 19 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 24 22 14 24 23 12 9 6 9 6 4 SHEAR DIR 69 67 80 86 82 68 78 73 54 68 65 119 164 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.5 27.7 26.8 25.4 23.4 22.3 22.1 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 160 157 149 140 130 116 95 85 83 80 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -50.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 72 71 67 62 63 64 58 56 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 125 122 107 83 55 30 40 45 45 42 41 57 200 MB DIV 96 77 48 44 27 16 1 2 9 10 28 9 7 LAND (KM) 197 172 122 85 68 49 109 235 175 151 288 422 618 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.1 19.2 20.1 20.9 21.5 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.6 102.9 103.5 104.1 105.4 106.7 107.9 109.2 110.7 112.5 114.7 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 9 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 37 35 39 35 27 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 11. 7. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. 1. -6. -13. -22. -30. -35. -38. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 ANDRES 06/22/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 ANDRES 06/22/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED