* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP022009 06/23/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 60 60 57 50 43 33 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 60 60 57 50 43 33 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 64 64 62 56 47 38 31 24 19 DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 21 19 11 14 16 19 6 15 14 9 10 5 SHEAR DIR 59 73 79 83 60 64 75 127 76 81 112 131 109 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.7 27.7 26.2 24.7 23.6 22.4 21.6 21.7 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 158 155 151 141 125 108 96 85 77 77 79 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 3 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 73 73 73 70 64 63 61 62 59 53 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 10 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 117 94 76 68 25 18 19 47 30 20 30 29 200 MB DIV 75 32 21 27 49 -12 14 -2 19 2 19 -12 11 LAND (KM) 166 118 94 78 45 109 270 169 167 245 362 481 609 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.0 20.1 20.9 21.4 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.1 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.4 104.0 104.6 105.2 106.7 108.5 109.7 110.6 112.0 114.3 116.0 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 5 5 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 39 38 32 30 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -5. -12. -22. -32. -41. -47. -52. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 ANDRES 06/23/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 ANDRES 06/23/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED