* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP022009 06/23/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 68 67 64 56 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 68 67 64 56 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 68 67 63 54 45 36 28 22 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 18 12 19 16 13 13 12 13 8 10 5 5 SHEAR DIR 68 73 59 48 61 51 95 86 88 88 101 152 94 SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.2 25.4 24.1 22.8 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 156 151 145 135 116 102 88 80 79 79 78 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 69 66 65 65 61 62 57 53 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 7 9 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 91 74 62 45 20 23 29 48 19 14 20 18 200 MB DIV 33 24 27 40 15 -8 14 2 37 7 0 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 94 76 73 48 65 192 230 180 188 298 402 554 723 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.9 104.6 105.4 106.1 107.5 109.1 110.3 111.3 112.8 114.8 116.8 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 7 7 5 6 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 32 27 24 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. -2. -6. -11. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 7. 4. -4. -13. -25. -36. -46. -52. -56. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 ANDRES 06/23/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 ANDRES 06/23/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY