* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP022009 06/23/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 61 60 56 48 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 61 60 56 48 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 63 61 54 44 35 26 20 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 19 16 22 22 19 18 9 17 12 15 11 11 14 SHEAR DIR 62 47 42 53 50 73 68 89 86 93 112 96 85 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.5 26.1 23.6 22.2 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 149 144 139 124 98 83 79 80 79 77 77 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 68 67 64 63 59 56 58 56 52 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 69 58 39 18 12 2 22 18 6 10 11 10 200 MB DIV 20 25 48 31 -2 15 -2 16 0 8 0 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 85 76 64 91 135 246 167 256 348 423 559 661 737 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.1 21.5 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.8 105.5 106.3 107.0 108.6 110.6 112.2 113.6 115.0 116.7 117.9 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 29 23 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. -17. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -4. -12. -23. -35. -46. -54. -59. -66. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 ANDRES 06/23/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 ANDRES 06/23/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY