* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP022009 06/23/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 59 55 47 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 59 55 47 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 65 63 59 50 39 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 20 21 23 18 16 7 11 9 9 8 6 6 SHEAR DIR 51 47 53 45 53 96 68 114 105 104 115 98 58 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.0 25.1 22.9 21.0 20.4 20.6 21.0 21.2 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 149 144 140 133 113 90 70 64 65 70 72 72 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 4 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 64 64 67 59 55 55 51 53 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 56 41 22 12 12 9 28 28 26 36 17 27 200 MB DIV 23 37 11 -2 -12 0 -18 18 31 8 2 11 3 LAND (KM) 83 61 74 135 231 127 92 183 249 352 457 566 647 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.2 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.5 106.2 107.0 107.8 109.4 110.8 112.3 113.9 115.3 116.5 117.8 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 25 16 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 354 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -10. -18. -24. -28. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -28. -41. -54. -64. -70. -76. -82. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 ANDRES 06/23/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 ANDRES 06/23/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY