* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP022009 06/24/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 55 53 50 44 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 55 53 50 44 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 56 53 49 41 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 23 24 17 17 10 14 10 10 7 7 5 7 SHEAR DIR 51 53 53 58 66 81 84 117 103 65 81 359 4 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.6 24.6 22.5 21.1 20.6 20.4 20.6 21.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 139 135 129 108 85 70 64 63 65 70 72 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 64 65 64 64 58 57 56 58 51 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 31 13 6 9 -5 22 24 30 28 22 19 31 200 MB DIV 25 5 -9 -2 21 8 13 19 15 15 15 -6 5 LAND (KM) 85 103 129 187 255 136 139 206 234 277 361 463 560 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.7 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.3 106.9 107.5 108.1 109.7 111.2 112.4 113.3 114.3 115.4 116.6 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 8 7 5 4 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 17 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -9. -17. -22. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -26. -38. -49. -58. -65. -70. -74. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 ANDRES 06/24/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 ANDRES 06/24/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED