* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP022009 06/24/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 42 39 33 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 42 39 33 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 47 44 41 34 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 22 23 18 18 14 9 12 15 6 2 3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 53 49 62 78 102 77 95 102 112 165 252 259 211 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.5 25.7 23.6 22.1 21.0 20.5 20.5 21.1 21.1 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 134 128 119 97 81 70 64 65 71 71 70 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 62 63 64 64 61 58 57 58 56 51 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 13 14 19 12 8 37 29 32 34 20 35 21 200 MB DIV 3 0 20 31 18 -21 29 33 1 0 6 -5 8 LAND (KM) 129 144 187 263 220 132 188 235 271 350 477 561 624 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.8 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.6 24.0 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.0 107.5 108.2 108.9 110.5 111.7 112.8 114.1 115.4 116.9 118.7 119.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 16 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -10. -17. -21. -24. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -22. -30. -40. -49. -54. -56. -57. -59. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022009 ANDRES 06/24/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022009 ANDRES 06/24/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED