* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 06/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 25 30 35 40 45 50 52 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 25 28 33 39 44 48 51 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 24 26 29 33 39 45 52 56 SHEAR (KT) 18 15 18 14 3 13 4 3 8 2 11 12 15 SHEAR DIR 263 249 225 247 214 176 38 123 15 261 323 260 288 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 146 141 135 132 130 128 127 127 129 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 144 141 138 132 123 117 113 109 107 108 110 111 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 11 10 12 10 11 10 12 10 13 10 700-500 MB RH 67 65 67 65 65 60 57 54 54 50 53 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 9 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -25 -11 -13 -29 -23 -12 -9 7 20 43 43 43 200 MB DIV 30 23 39 0 -11 11 6 0 13 -5 1 23 14 LAND (KM) 113 197 205 108 11 46 194 291 336 361 345 363 382 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.3 21.9 23.0 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.0 24.0 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.7 85.6 86.4 87.2 88.5 89.6 90.4 90.9 91.0 91.2 91.7 92.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 11 11 9 6 4 2 0 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 54 56 66 61 32 1 16 25 27 27 29 32 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 30. 32. 38. 39. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 06/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 06/26/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY