* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 06/26/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 41 47 55 59 63 65 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 29 37 44 51 55 60 62 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 29 33 38 45 52 59 63 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 3 13 2 8 4 5 11 6 13 11 SHEAR DIR 251 229 255 131 129 254 75 20 20 316 344 299 310 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 147 144 140 135 132 130 131 131 131 132 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 143 139 134 129 119 114 111 112 112 114 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 10 10 12 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 65 65 69 66 66 59 61 57 58 58 54 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -20 -28 -21 -10 0 0 14 37 21 6 8 200 MB DIV 52 45 3 -3 -3 -20 16 17 14 16 12 20 30 LAND (KM) 140 228 160 85 8 2 78 91 75 48 53 99 170 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.6 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.0 22.0 22.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 85.2 86.0 86.6 87.2 88.1 88.5 88.6 88.4 88.2 88.4 88.9 89.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 9 5 2 0 1 0 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 54 60 67 58 31 0 3 4 3 1 1 5 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 21. 27. 35. 39. 43. 45. 48. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 06/26/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 06/26/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY