* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 06/27/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 47 53 59 63 69 70 72 70 70 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 40 45 51 55 60 62 63 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 37 40 37 41 46 53 59 64 68 70 70 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 2 8 10 5 3 12 2 12 11 19 20 SHEAR DIR 223 248 242 145 189 15 198 350 277 323 267 310 258 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 142 138 134 132 130 130 130 132 131 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 135 130 125 118 114 111 111 111 114 114 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 12 12 10 12 10 12 11 13 11 13 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 67 65 61 56 58 54 58 55 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 11 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -19 -21 -14 -9 -11 -7 9 31 59 68 36 16 200 MB DIV 47 -1 0 -6 -13 4 13 48 26 24 35 9 7 LAND (KM) 222 207 125 54 -20 56 115 120 112 105 99 151 224 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.4 21.1 22.1 22.6 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.3 22.6 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.9 85.6 86.2 86.7 87.1 87.9 88.3 88.5 88.6 88.7 88.9 89.6 90.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 8 7 5 2 1 1 1 2 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 58 68 63 57 59 2 6 5 5 5 5 8 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 23. 29. 33. 39. 40. 42. 40. 40. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 06/27/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 06/27/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY