* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 06/27/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 39 46 52 57 60 61 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 29 33 37 44 50 56 58 60 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 29 31 35 41 47 53 58 60 60 57 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 1 6 8 6 1 14 10 25 19 34 23 SHEAR DIR 168 180 295 57 90 319 86 288 309 298 302 295 308 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 134 132 131 129 129 129 131 133 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 126 123 121 117 114 110 110 111 113 115 116 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 73 71 65 64 63 60 57 56 55 55 56 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -12 -15 -9 3 6 10 26 29 21 0 -9 -6 200 MB DIV 33 3 -4 -12 -14 4 -6 26 36 35 1 15 -9 LAND (KM) 7 -58 -42 26 95 178 227 233 264 321 393 399 252 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.7 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 87.9 88.4 89.0 89.5 90.2 90.8 91.0 91.5 92.2 92.9 93.8 95.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 4 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 64 13 0 4 14 26 27 28 31 35 41 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 36. 36. 36. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 06/27/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 06/27/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY