* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 06/28/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 53 59 60 61 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 32 38 45 51 57 58 59 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 31 35 41 48 54 57 59 57 56 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 8 6 4 8 10 17 23 29 23 21 SHEAR DIR 227 287 3 72 146 346 228 313 258 268 253 313 309 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 135 133 131 131 131 133 133 132 131 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 123 121 118 115 114 114 116 116 115 115 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 12 11 13 11 13 11 14 10 14 700-500 MB RH 73 68 65 63 60 63 56 60 59 60 60 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -18 -17 4 15 15 11 47 41 21 12 -9 18 200 MB DIV 6 -7 -16 -6 -11 17 22 19 38 -10 11 18 11 LAND (KM) -4 -73 -58 -1 55 123 190 259 347 436 316 187 27 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.4 88.0 88.6 89.1 89.6 90.5 91.2 91.9 92.7 93.5 94.5 95.6 97.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 60 12 0 1 5 21 29 33 40 38 35 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 28. 34. 35. 36. 36. 37. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 06/28/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 06/28/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY