* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 06/28/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 38 43 49 53 56 55 58 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 33 40 45 51 55 58 57 59 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 30 32 37 42 46 50 52 52 52 39 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 1 7 9 6 12 16 17 25 23 17 28 SHEAR DIR 324 14 45 344 11 262 320 271 311 265 315 317 13 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 133 133 131 131 132 132 131 130 128 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 120 118 117 115 114 115 115 114 114 112 112 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 12 11 13 11 14 11 13 11 15 11 700-500 MB RH 66 64 59 60 61 58 60 55 59 57 56 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -12 -1 7 2 7 29 38 20 1 -28 -4 -17 200 MB DIV -7 -7 5 12 9 8 0 9 17 0 -11 -11 -12 LAND (KM) -80 -44 6 41 77 153 216 319 431 349 221 78 -91 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.8 22.3 22.6 23.2 23.9 24.8 25.6 26.4 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.5 89.0 89.5 90.0 90.8 91.5 92.3 93.1 93.9 95.0 96.5 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 64 13 0 0 4 10 25 31 37 38 30 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 18. 24. 28. 31. 30. 33. 32. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 06/28/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 06/28/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY