* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902009 06/30/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 34 35 33 29 24 21 20 20 19 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 34 35 33 29 24 21 20 20 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 28 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 10 13 25 23 29 29 26 24 24 31 SHEAR DIR 5 14 296 261 245 247 255 261 270 281 280 280 262 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 146 145 144 144 141 140 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 61 64 59 60 57 56 53 53 52 52 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 1 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -40 -44 -49 -50 -59 -58 -54 -48 -47 -39 -27 -19 200 MB DIV 66 49 56 67 39 26 18 6 12 -5 -13 16 46 LAND (KM) 1834 1741 1649 1556 1467 1288 1115 992 933 946 1034 1174 1301 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 142.4 143.4 144.3 145.4 146.4 148.6 150.8 153.1 155.5 158.0 160.7 163.4 165.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 37 39 42 36 36 32 31 34 49 48 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 4. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902009 INVEST 06/30/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902009 INVEST 06/30/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY