* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902009 06/30/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 30 26 22 17 16 16 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 30 26 22 17 16 16 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 12 19 24 28 32 29 22 23 26 32 SHEAR DIR 6 309 282 258 245 257 252 269 287 298 284 266 248 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 146 146 144 144 143 140 139 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 63 62 60 60 54 56 53 52 55 56 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -47 -52 -55 -60 -66 -55 -59 -50 -36 -30 -32 -30 200 MB DIV 42 30 47 34 27 20 3 26 6 -1 -21 22 43 LAND (KM) 1834 1729 1626 1518 1414 1220 1061 949 889 899 971 1102 1183 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.9 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 142.4 143.5 144.5 145.7 146.8 149.1 151.3 153.5 155.9 158.5 160.9 163.4 165.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 37 39 41 35 35 33 29 37 47 40 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902009 INVEST 06/30/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902009 INVEST 06/30/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY