* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 07/04/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 44 42 37 32 25 20 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 44 42 37 32 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 40 41 41 41 41 40 39 31 SHEAR (KT) 22 11 14 16 15 12 15 19 21 26 38 41 47 SHEAR DIR 309 292 283 289 283 292 287 292 283 275 268 241 240 SST (C) 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.3 23.0 22.3 21.4 20.5 19.9 19.2 18.9 19.2 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 98 98 96 94 93 90 86 82 79 77 77 79 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 87 86 84 84 81 78 74 72 70 71 72 72 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 -56.7 -56.3 -56.4 -56.2 -56.1 -55.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 51 52 48 44 41 37 36 36 35 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 12 11 13 12 10 8 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 6 -10 -6 -2 -31 -34 -20 -2 14 -7 -4 200 MB DIV -5 6 23 6 -15 5 11 -9 1 4 17 24 14 LAND (KM) 2063 2144 2128 2018 1908 1675 1444 1220 962 721 463 162 -143 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.9 31.9 32.3 32.6 33.7 34.8 35.9 36.7 37.6 38.4 39.5 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 37.1 35.6 34.2 32.7 29.4 25.9 22.5 19.8 17.3 14.5 11.0 7.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 13 14 15 15 13 11 11 13 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 2. -3. -10. -15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 07/04/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 07/04/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY