* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 07/04/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 53 55 54 49 44 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 53 55 54 49 44 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 36 33 30 27 24 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 9 5 7 2 1 9 8 12 12 10 7 SHEAR DIR 25 36 58 33 354 3 266 167 123 124 102 97 71 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.8 25.5 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 150 149 147 141 132 118 109 102 99 94 88 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 83 84 82 78 78 76 74 72 70 63 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 30 32 30 30 24 27 35 37 34 16 12 0 200 MB DIV 40 47 57 54 50 37 24 23 6 4 -9 6 7 LAND (KM) 423 439 463 502 568 650 709 822 911 986 1076 1116 1161 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.9 107.1 108.3 109.5 111.8 114.1 116.2 118.2 119.9 121.4 122.8 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 41 27 19 27 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 28. 30. 29. 24. 19. 16. 13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 07/04/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 5.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 07/04/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY