* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 07/05/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 51 54 53 48 43 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 46 51 54 53 48 43 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 35 35 33 31 28 26 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 7 5 3 2 7 10 9 11 4 8 SHEAR DIR 6 23 11 347 341 315 149 157 141 145 147 129 122 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.8 25.5 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 149 149 147 141 132 118 109 102 99 94 88 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 80 78 81 77 77 72 69 62 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 22 19 13 5 5 25 29 34 29 25 13 13 200 MB DIV 58 49 63 57 69 16 38 16 7 3 1 3 -4 LAND (KM) 400 435 463 502 568 650 709 822 911 986 1076 1116 1161 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.6 107.1 108.3 109.5 111.8 114.1 116.2 118.2 119.9 121.4 122.8 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 9 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 27 19 27 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 26. 29. 28. 23. 18. 16. 13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 07/05/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 07/05/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED