* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 07/05/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 36 35 32 30 28 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 36 35 32 30 28 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 25 24 23 21 19 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 4 1 2 3 3 2 4 4 17 17 SHEAR DIR 341 13 32 86 42 152 131 157 75 264 253 226 222 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.8 25.6 24.6 24.2 24.1 23.8 23.3 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 138 132 119 109 104 103 100 94 90 88 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 79 80 81 79 78 74 71 62 58 53 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 17 14 21 28 38 49 30 39 24 28 14 200 MB DIV 59 60 57 53 38 27 21 27 -6 6 11 -3 -11 LAND (KM) 616 682 666 684 718 813 912 1022 1150 1238 1321 1417 1522 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 111.0 112.0 113.1 114.1 116.0 118.1 120.0 121.9 123.6 125.2 126.7 128.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 22 19 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. -1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 07/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 07/05/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY