* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942009 07/06/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 36 34 30 26 21 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 37 36 34 30 26 21 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 24 22 19 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 4 9 10 14 13 11 11 17 14 16 SHEAR DIR 16 38 74 54 88 112 115 112 143 166 179 219 201 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.3 25.1 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.5 23.2 23.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 139 134 127 114 105 103 101 97 93 91 90 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 80 77 76 69 64 61 55 53 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 8 17 22 29 49 51 50 47 60 50 48 200 MB DIV 66 60 55 50 50 13 21 10 3 11 9 2 -4 LAND (KM) 679 691 687 705 739 834 922 1035 1157 1244 1354 1474 1602 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.8 112.8 113.8 114.8 116.7 118.7 120.5 122.3 124.0 125.7 127.3 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 11. 9. 5. 1. -4. -7. -10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942009 INVEST 07/06/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942009 INVEST 07/06/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY