* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP032009 07/06/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 38 35 31 26 21 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 38 35 31 26 21 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 35 35 33 29 26 23 21 18 15 SHEAR (KT) 2 7 6 8 8 14 10 6 10 12 21 21 26 SHEAR DIR 66 30 38 60 72 97 100 108 201 210 228 217 207 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.0 24.7 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 138 131 123 109 102 101 99 96 92 90 89 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 83 83 80 77 77 70 66 61 58 53 51 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 16 9 15 18 19 33 46 48 42 32 31 19 16 200 MB DIV 57 53 54 61 38 20 12 -6 15 8 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 700 678 676 703 744 833 914 1037 1140 1243 1333 1435 1521 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.5 20.0 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.2 113.2 114.2 115.1 117.0 118.8 120.6 122.3 124.1 125.7 127.2 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 5. 1. -4. -9. -14. -19. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032009 BLANCA 07/06/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032009 BLANCA 07/06/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY