* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP032009 07/06/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 49 50 49 45 40 31 24 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 49 50 49 45 40 31 24 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 47 46 42 36 31 28 24 21 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 12 16 9 9 11 15 21 25 32 33 SHEAR DIR 344 34 57 69 91 94 115 185 205 219 205 194 197 SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.2 25.5 24.8 23.8 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.3 23.1 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 125 118 110 100 96 95 95 94 92 90 88 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 72 69 66 60 58 56 55 49 45 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 8 16 17 28 31 48 51 45 45 29 26 7 200 MB DIV 56 57 40 19 10 28 1 18 10 10 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 633 644 670 709 748 809 903 987 1052 1117 1198 1290 1408 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.0 117.7 119.4 120.6 121.5 122.7 124.1 125.5 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 10. 9. 5. 0. -9. -16. -24. -32. -38. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032009 BLANCA 07/06/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032009 BLANCA 07/06/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY