* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP032009 07/07/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 52 51 47 40 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 52 51 47 40 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 50 49 43 36 31 27 24 21 18 15 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 9 12 13 13 10 6 15 19 22 25 24 SHEAR DIR 36 52 71 85 93 88 116 227 229 228 201 196 189 SST (C) 27.0 26.3 25.4 24.7 24.1 23.5 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 126 117 109 103 96 95 96 96 96 96 96 95 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 77 73 73 70 67 66 60 55 54 45 37 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 7 5 4 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 18 24 23 23 37 34 34 22 18 13 0 200 MB DIV 58 31 22 0 4 8 5 7 4 4 -14 -4 7 LAND (KM) 649 667 698 739 764 830 920 1008 1068 1137 1221 1320 1440 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.3 115.1 116.0 116.9 118.3 119.6 120.7 121.5 122.5 123.7 125.0 126.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 6. 2. -5. -10. -17. -26. -33. -40. -45. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032009 BLANCA 07/07/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032009 BLANCA 07/07/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY