* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP032009 07/07/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 34 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 34 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 33 31 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 11 17 14 12 16 8 9 12 25 28 32 25 SHEAR DIR 60 69 74 87 91 113 139 184 203 193 194 189 211 SST (C) 25.4 24.7 24.1 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.4 22.2 22.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 109 103 98 95 93 93 90 87 84 83 81 82 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 70 67 67 60 55 50 46 41 36 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 16 17 22 23 31 34 28 32 23 20 6 200 MB DIV 24 -1 20 23 12 -6 19 5 0 11 3 -6 5 LAND (KM) 729 754 770 800 838 908 990 1032 1093 1158 1256 1372 1457 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.6 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.2 117.0 117.8 118.6 119.9 121.2 122.3 123.5 124.7 126.1 127.6 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -24. -30. -38. -44. -52. -58. -62. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032009 BLANCA 07/07/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032009 BLANCA 07/07/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY