* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP032009 07/07/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 28 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 12 10 8 8 10 13 26 33 36 35 SHEAR DIR 33 77 76 78 96 147 180 221 204 190 189 196 204 SST (C) 24.2 23.7 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.5 22.3 22.1 22.0 22.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 105 99 94 91 90 89 88 85 83 81 80 80 81 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 69 66 64 60 55 51 44 36 31 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 8 9 8 7 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 17 20 20 24 27 31 36 23 27 16 13 3 200 MB DIV 11 16 18 8 -4 21 8 23 5 6 9 -3 6 LAND (KM) 712 732 761 800 846 906 956 1002 1071 1142 1248 1377 1463 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.0 117.8 118.6 119.4 120.6 121.8 122.8 123.9 125.0 126.3 127.8 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -29. -32. -38. -43. -53. -59. -62. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032009 BLANCA 07/07/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032009 BLANCA 07/07/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY