* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP862009 07/09/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 45 50 53 54 55 62 65 64 67 63 60 47 47 SHEAR DIR 249 245 245 245 245 241 241 256 258 256 256 258 269 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 109 111 112 112 113 116 117 115 114 115 115 116 117 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 23 22 23 25 26 28 29 29 33 37 43 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 -5 -1 -5 -7 0 -6 -2 -12 -3 -8 -1 200 MB DIV 13 0 8 9 38 48 41 34 20 8 31 -8 0 LAND (KM) 723 640 556 488 420 272 151 120 99 104 155 128 100 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.4 22.5 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 147.9 148.7 149.5 150.2 150.8 152.2 153.5 154.6 155.4 156.0 156.6 157.1 157.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -9. -20. -34. -49. -60. -67. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -14. -28. -42. -56. -65. -70. -72. -72. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP862009 INVEST 07/09/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP862009 INVEST 07/09/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY