* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 07/09/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 39 51 65 72 78 80 82 85 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 39 51 65 72 78 80 82 85 84 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 34 41 50 59 67 74 81 85 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 2 2 3 4 3 1 8 7 7 9 13 SHEAR DIR 293 357 48 206 69 99 99 147 88 113 69 55 49 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 154 153 151 153 153 151 148 148 147 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 68 66 64 65 67 68 69 64 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 6 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -31 -28 -31 -28 -14 0 6 10 7 7 19 22 200 MB DIV 54 41 32 21 43 59 47 52 61 47 36 48 13 LAND (KM) 1181 1240 1294 1361 1432 1570 1730 1825 1927 2024 2107 2155 2205 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.8 10.2 10.8 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.6 111.4 112.4 113.3 115.1 117.1 119.1 121.2 123.2 125.0 126.4 127.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 53 64 69 64 54 57 51 38 31 30 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 26. 40. 47. 53. 55. 57. 60. 59. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 07/09/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 6.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 07/09/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY