* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952009 07/10/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 65 69 70 70 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 65 69 70 70 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 40 48 57 64 69 71 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 7 6 5 3 4 5 5 4 8 8 SHEAR DIR 321 311 328 357 357 13 110 52 59 29 13 349 342 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 155 155 155 155 153 150 149 148 143 142 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 65 65 64 64 65 67 64 58 55 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -31 -31 -31 -27 -32 -32 -25 -25 -20 -9 4 17 200 MB DIV 31 13 17 20 27 -4 21 17 34 16 14 -35 -30 LAND (KM) 1223 1292 1366 1442 1522 1655 1767 1887 2003 2127 2270 2408 2496 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.1 113.1 114.2 115.2 117.4 119.7 122.0 124.5 126.8 129.0 130.9 132.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 58 68 63 63 55 50 39 29 34 26 23 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 34. 40. 44. 45. 45. 44. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952009 INVEST 07/10/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952009 INVEST 07/10/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY