* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042009 07/10/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 47 55 63 69 71 70 67 63 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 47 55 63 69 71 70 67 63 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 60 66 70 70 67 63 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 5 4 5 1 3 9 7 9 SHEAR DIR 293 321 353 210 102 175 101 139 262 226 300 282 279 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 156 156 152 148 149 147 142 142 138 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 61 58 61 58 56 54 51 49 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -29 -29 -34 -37 -38 -37 -31 -27 -16 -3 13 17 200 MB DIV 35 20 20 4 8 24 1 26 6 2 -20 -17 0 LAND (KM) 1362 1424 1492 1544 1603 1707 1825 1964 2142 2309 2423 2236 1982 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.8 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.4 13.2 13.4 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.4 115.4 116.6 117.7 119.9 122.3 124.8 127.4 129.9 132.3 134.8 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 66 64 64 60 54 45 34 33 34 24 29 22 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 25. 33. 39. 41. 40. 37. 33. 29. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 FOUR 07/10/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 FOUR 07/10/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY