* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/11/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 69 74 76 75 71 69 66 63 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 64 69 74 76 75 71 69 66 63 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 60 64 69 72 76 78 77 74 70 67 SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 2 3 1 6 6 5 7 2 6 1 SHEAR DIR 317 197 212 196 199 237 123 172 187 277 310 290 314 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.9 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 156 154 149 148 149 145 142 144 139 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 57 56 56 56 58 58 56 57 58 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -19 -25 -28 -29 -24 -20 -14 -3 3 7 13 19 200 MB DIV 26 19 7 10 35 -13 11 9 1 -11 -21 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 1436 1500 1536 1575 1622 1768 1888 2027 2175 2339 2477 2232 2012 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.7 116.8 117.9 119.0 121.4 123.7 126.0 128.1 130.4 132.7 135.0 137.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 64 65 59 55 48 35 33 35 30 23 30 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -6. -7. -10. -10. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 29. 31. 30. 26. 24. 21. 18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/11/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 50% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 43% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/11/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY