* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/11/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 70 76 81 84 82 78 75 71 66 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 70 76 81 84 82 78 75 71 66 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 64 69 72 76 81 86 90 89 85 80 75 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 4 4 1 3 7 5 6 5 SHEAR DIR 315 276 288 340 265 11 87 66 198 331 331 291 279 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 154 151 148 149 148 143 144 145 141 136 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 55 54 59 61 58 58 60 61 60 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -26 -31 -30 -25 -19 -9 -2 0 4 9 17 200 MB DIV 23 0 13 32 37 0 11 -21 -11 -44 -13 -2 -13 LAND (KM) 1515 1551 1595 1648 1709 1856 1990 2142 2287 2444 2412 2169 1927 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.8 117.9 119.1 120.2 122.5 124.8 127.1 129.2 131.4 133.5 135.8 138.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 65 59 54 47 43 35 32 34 25 24 31 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 20. 26. 31. 34. 32. 28. 25. 21. 16. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/11/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 5.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 63% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 59% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/11/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY