* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/11/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 73 78 79 80 77 73 66 61 55 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 73 78 79 80 77 73 66 61 55 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 64 67 70 74 77 80 81 79 74 68 61 SHEAR (KT) 0 2 1 4 4 2 3 1 3 4 11 12 15 SHEAR DIR 11 286 299 307 354 31 304 179 274 297 276 284 294 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 152 150 148 149 145 144 146 141 137 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 54 57 57 59 59 61 56 55 54 54 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -28 -29 -24 -25 -17 -8 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 200 MB DIV 12 16 30 37 18 12 6 10 -1 -22 1 -5 -28 LAND (KM) 1552 1594 1644 1713 1789 1944 2076 2245 2439 2411 2133 1863 1599 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.5 118.6 119.9 121.1 123.6 126.0 128.5 131.1 133.6 136.2 138.7 141.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 62 56 48 46 40 33 31 27 23 32 25 16 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 23. 24. 26. 22. 18. 11. 6. 0. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/11/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 35% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/11/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY