* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/11/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 79 84 87 93 94 93 87 81 72 65 59 V (KT) LAND 65 72 79 84 87 93 94 93 87 81 72 65 59 V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 77 82 86 91 94 94 91 86 79 72 64 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 7 7 2 4 0 7 10 13 18 24 SHEAR DIR 16 9 17 14 9 32 27 233 325 296 303 283 293 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 151 149 150 149 144 146 146 141 138 134 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 62 62 63 57 56 57 55 50 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -27 -21 -19 -11 -3 3 6 5 2 3 0 0 200 MB DIV 18 30 33 14 4 28 5 27 -39 -14 -5 -9 -27 LAND (KM) 1576 1639 1709 1778 1854 2012 2182 2357 2522 2330 2043 1775 1523 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.4 119.5 120.7 121.9 124.5 127.2 129.7 132.0 134.5 137.2 139.7 142.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 61 50 46 44 37 30 32 23 27 33 26 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 22. 28. 29. 28. 22. 16. 7. 0. -6. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/11/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 43% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/11/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY