* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP042009 07/12/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 90 94 98 101 102 99 95 87 81 73 67 V (KT) LAND 75 83 90 94 98 101 102 99 95 87 81 73 67 V (KT) LGE mod 75 83 88 92 94 97 99 100 99 97 90 82 73 SHEAR (KT) 1 4 6 7 5 5 6 3 3 7 9 13 12 SHEAR DIR 329 360 6 5 32 20 67 16 14 309 306 312 308 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 149 149 149 147 143 145 144 140 136 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 57 62 61 59 58 58 59 55 52 47 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -19 -19 -13 -9 1 3 5 4 2 3 -2 -4 200 MB DIV 36 37 11 -2 16 2 13 -11 -24 -10 -1 -37 -40 LAND (KM) 1642 1703 1770 1850 1930 2074 2244 2384 2519 2292 1990 1716 1488 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.4 13.0 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.6 120.7 121.9 123.1 125.4 128.0 130.2 132.3 134.7 137.7 140.2 142.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 13 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 49 45 43 37 35 29 28 23 29 29 22 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 24. 20. 12. 6. -2. -8. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009 CARLOS 07/12/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 5.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 56% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 55% is 10.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009 CARLOS 07/12/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY